Teen-Twenty Sports Betting Tracker
"Only 4%"
On a since-altered webpage, Kalshi revealed that “only 4% of [its] trading volume comes from users aged 18-20.” We’re using that “only 4%” language as a basis to estimate how much money young adults and students are driving in sports betting volume on Kalshi.
As of September 1, we estimate that
$5,132,000,000+
in sports volume comes from 18 to 20-year-olds.
The Background
It is important to remember that in 2024 Kalshi told a federal court:
“as the legislative history confirms, Congress did not want sports betting to be conducted on derivatives markets.”
Shortly thereafter, Kalshi reversed course and began offering sports bets (branded as “sports event contracts”) that now account for the vast majority of its trading volume.
In the few markets where the legal age to place a sports bet is 18, legal operators adhere to comprehensive state rules and regulations designed to protect consumers.
Meanwhile, the so-called “prediction markets” are actively evading those gaming laws and oversight. Because Kalshi does not pay state gaming taxes, they are siphoning critical funding that goes to social services and problem gaming initiatives.
The legal, state-and-tribal-regulated gaming industry emphasizes that it is an entertainment product and does not advertise to teens.
Kalshi tells courts and regulators that it is an investment product.
As 44 state attorneys general fight to require these backdoor sports betting operations to comply with state and tribal laws, it is important that parents, grandparents, teachers, policymakers, and others understand how much sports betting volume 18 to 20-year-olds are believed to be driving on Kalshi and have conversations with young people about the dangers of looking at sports betting as an investment strategy.